Executive Insights: The Economic Consequences of the Trade War
Speaker: Dr. Michael Spencer, Managing Director and Head of Research Asia Pacific, Deutsche Bank
シャングリ・ラ ホテル 東京
Conway Room 2&3（27階）
東京都千代田区 丸の内1-8-3 丸の内トラストタワー本館 （東京都）
- Event Start
- 2019/01/31 | 11:45
- Event End
- 2019/01/31 | 14:00
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The US-China trade war is about much more than trade and isn’t just between China and the US. The major developed economy leaders have concluded that China is opening up to trade and investment too slowly and protections of its SEOs distort not only the domestic market but foreign markets when those firms export or invest abroad. There is a path out of this conflict that would be mutually beneficial, but will leaders on both sides find it?
The trade war is only one of a number of significant geopolitical risks: Brexit; European conflicts over fiscal policy and other concerns have led to an elevated sense of uncertainty. Fortunately, the global economy remains quite robust. Growth has peaked, but is slowing down at a moderate pace, supported by an “exceptional” US economy. Our base case is for growth in the US and Europe to remain strong enough, even if a little slower, to support the continued gradual withdrawal of monetary stimulus.
Dr. Michael Spencer is Chief Economist and Head of Research, Asia Pacific, at Deutsche Bank. He has been a senior member of Deutsche Bank’s research department since joining the bank in Hong Kong in December 1997 as Senior Economist. Since 2013, he has also been Head of Research, Asia Pacific, overseeing the bank’s equity, fixed income, credit, foreign exchange and economics research throughout the region. He is also a member of the Management Committee of Deutsche Bank AG, Hong Kong.
Prior to joining Deutsche Bank, Michael worked at the International Monetary Fund between 1990 and 1997, the last six years of which were in the International Capital Markets division, which pioneered the IMF’s surveillance of capital markets and financial system soundness in all its member countries. He has published numerous articles on different aspects of financial economics in both academic and policy fora.
Michael has a PhD and a Bachelor of Arts degree (Honours) from Queen’s University, Canada, and a Master of Arts degree from the University of Toronto.
11:45 - 12:15 Registration & Networking (incl. welcome drink)
12:15 - 13:00 Lunch
13:00 - 13:45 Keynote
13:45 - 14:00 Q&A